OSCAR PREDIX
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Written By: John H. Foote
This could be one of the most interesting years ever in the countdown for the Academy Awards, Hollywood’s biggest evening. Love them or hate them, the Academy Award is still the most important film award on the planet with the ability to add untold millions to the box office of a film, bring attention to a small picture, make credible a film struggling at the box office, mark a comeback of an actor or actress, or make the career of the same.

2004 yielded a strong crop of films spread out over the calendar year, something rare in this time of year end heavy releases meant to draw the attention of Oscar voters.

This year we will have three major directors vying for the coveted Oscar, with Martin Scorsese, never before so honoured the odds on favourite to win the award for The Aviator, his superb Howard Hughes biography. Clint Eastwood will give Scorsese a strong run for his outstanding boxing flick Million Dollar Baby which could also land Clint his second nomination for best actor. Annette Bening looks like the strongest candidate to take home the little golden man for her performance in Being Julia, but look out for Hilary Swank in Million Dollar Baby, the same Hilary Swank who defeated Bening in 1999 for best actress.

Sideways looks like the strongest indy of the year, already the critical darling of the year, and therefore a strong candidate for multiple nods including best picture and best director.

As for the years most controversial film, The Passion of the Christ, I do not think a best picture nomination is forthcoming but I do not see how the Academy can ignore Gibson’s accomplishment.

For the record, here are my predictions of how might be nominated, who will, who will not, and who could prove to be spoiler.

BEST PICTURE

There seems to me that there are three shoo-ins for best picture nominations, The Aviator, Million Dollar Baby and Sideways. After that any two of perhaps eight other films could land in this category. Mike Nichols caustic study of dysfunctional relationships Closer, could land with a nomination for best picture as could the wonderful love story Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, which has earned several critics awards this last month. There has been extraordinary support in Hollywood for Ray, the biography of music legend Ray Charles, and also for Kinsey, the brilliant but odd bio of Dr. Alfred Kinsey. The excellent Brazilian film The Motorcycle Diaries could land in this category though I have a hunch it is likely to end up in the foreign language film category where it will win. In Hollywood, there has been an enormous groundswell of support for Hotel Rwanda, featuring a standout performance from Don Cheadle, and the Barrie biography Finding Neverland is also a favourite around Los Angeles. Even Michael Mann’s noir Collateral has a shot for a best picture nomination. At the end of the day just five films will be so nominated, and I believe them to be the following.

THE AVIATOR, MILLION DOLLAR BABY, SIDEWAYS, CLOSER, AND RAY

BEST DIRECTOR

Is it a given that Martin Scorsese will finally win a long overdue Oscar for best director? No. That train of thought came about two years ago when Gangs of New York (2002) earned the diminutive director his fourth nomination, only to see him lose to Roman Polanski. There is little doubt that Scorsese should have at least Academy Awards by now and this could indeed be his year, but let’s never forget that he is very much a Hollywood outsider and likes it that way. Clint Eastwood is beloved in Los Angeles, is already a best director winner for Unforgiven (1992) and could again win the Oscar for Million Dollar Baby. Alexander Payne could also earn the award for his stunning comedy Sideways which has made the awards circuit within critics groups around North America. Mike Nichols is enjoying a career rebirth at the moment with Closer and his HBO masterpiece Angels in America which recently won him an Emmy. Michel Gondry could sneak in as a nominee for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, or Walter Salles for his Che Guevara film, The Motorcycle Diaries. If there is one director that truly deserves at the very least a nomination it is Mel Gibson for The Passion of the Christ, and I have a hunch he will be among the five nominees. There is always at least one best director nominee without the benefit of a best picture nomination, though the two should go hand in hand.

PREDIX: MARTIN SCORSESE, CLINT EASTWOOD, ALEXANDER PAYNE, MIKE NICHOLS, AND MEL GIBSON

BEST ACTOR
The toughest category of the year is loaded with eighteen worthy nominees and just five slots. That said, it seems clear, crystal clear that several great performances worthy of an Oscar nomination if not the award itself are going to be overlooked. Jamie Foxx seems a shoo-in and the most likely winner for his riveting performance in Ray, and Leonardo de Caprio will likely be nominated for The Aviator. Beyond those two the field is wide open though I do believe the great character actor Paul Giamatti will be nominated for his sublime work in Sideways, the best performance of the year in my opinion. Clint Eastwood, highly regarded as a director may earn his second best actor nod for Million Dollar Baby, or Johnny Depp may go for his second nomination in as many years for Finding Neverland. Last years’ winner Sean Penn has been earning glowing reviews for his performance in The Assassination of Richard Nixon, and Kevin Bacon gives the finest performance of his career as a pedophile trying to go right in The Woodsman. Liam Neeson, an early Oscar favourite may sneak in for Kinsey, or Don Cheadle may earn the fifth slot for Hotel Rwanda. Javier Bardem has been earning rave reviews for his work in The Sea Inside, Jim Carrey deserves a nod for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and Tom Cruise did the best work of his career in Collateral, but it is the kind of year when great work may not enough because there is simply so much of it.

PREDIX: JAMIE FOXX, PAUL GIAMATTI, LEONARDO DE CAPRIO, CLINT EASTWOOD, JAVIER BARDEM

BEST ACTRESS

While the best actor category if full to the brim, the best actress category is slim, with perhaps seven worth candidates. That said the performances are particularly strong making the choice for the ultimate performance this year very difficult. Annette Bening has been the early leader for her riveting work in Being Julia, which was little more than a showcase for that under valued actress’ talents. She will go toe to toe (again) with Hilary Swank, a certain nominee for her performance in Million Dollar Baby. The last time the pair faced off in this category Swank (Boys Don’t Cry;1999) took the Oscar over Bening (American Beauty;1999). Filling out the other slots will likely be Kate Winslet for her stunning work in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Imelda Staunton (perhaps the winner this year) for her gritty turn as the abortionist in Mike Leigh’s brilliant Vera Drake, Julia Roberts in Closer which offers her the greatest challenge of her career, one she matches, or Uma Thurman for her magnificent physical performance in Kill Bill Volume Two. There has been building support for Cataline Moreno in Maria Full of Grace, and Nicole Kidman in Birth, but I think the Academy will stick to what has been popular and seen.

PREDIX: ANNETTE BENING, HILARY SWANK, IMELDA STAUNTON, KATE WINSLET, AND JULIA ROBERTS

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jamie Foxx could become the first African American actor to receive double nominations; in addition to his for sure nomination for Ray, he could land in this category for his turn in Collateral, opposite Tom Cruise. That said, Thomas Haden Church is the likely nominee here for his hysterically funny performance is Sideways, a huge comeback for the television star. Morgan Freeman will earn a well deserved nomination for his sly performance in Million Dollar Baby, while Clive Owen will take a spot for his acidic performance in Closer. David Carradine could land a nod for his work as Bill in Kill Bill Volume Two, and Peter Saarsgard could indeed be nominated for Kinsey. Television veteran Alan Alda could land a nod for his turn in The Aviator, which could also have nominees in John C. Reilly and Alec Baldwin.

PREDIX: MORGAN FREEMAN, THOMAS HADEN CHURCH, CLIVE OWEN, JAMIE FOXX, AND DAVID CARRADINE
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Another category tough to call because of the sheer volume of potential nominees, led by Cate Blanchett’s riveting and haunting performance as Katherine Hepburn in The Aviator. The frontrunner however is Virginia Madsen in Sideways, which could also see her co-star Sandra Oh nominated for the same award. Natalie Portman made huge strides as a dramatic actress this year in Closer and deserves a nomination, as does Laura Linney for her performance as the long suffering wife of Kinsey. Academy favourite Meryl Streep should land a record fourteenth nomination for her terrifying performance in The Manchurian Candidate, and Ron Howard’s little girl Bryce Dallas Howard could end up in this category for The Village, in which she was by far the best thing. For a purely visual performance look for Maya Morgenstern, so good as Mary, mother of Christ in The Passion of the Christ. And finally there has been unusual support for unknown actress Sharon Warren for her performance in Ray, as the great musician’s mother.

PREDIX: CATE BLANCHETT, NATALIE PORTMAN, VIRIGINIA MADSEN, MERYL STREEP, AND SHARON WARREN.

Look for The Aviator to dominate the nominations with perhaps eleven or twelve in all. Sideways should do very well in the major categories as well as writing, where it stands a strong chance of winning. The Passion of the Christ is considered a lock for at least best cinematography and best make-up, and could eanr nods for music and art direction as well. Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow will do very well in the visual effects and sound effects editing categories, as will The Incredibles and Shrek 2. It seems as though there is a lack of best song contenders, though Alfie had at least three original songs composed by Mick Jagger and could see all three nominated.

And left out likely completely?

Fahrenheit 9/11…though had that moron lost the election as he should have, this would have been the first documentary to win best picture…not just best documentary…but best film of the year. Now…nothing.










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