OSCAR PREDIX
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Written By: John H Foote
     Will this finally be the year Martin Scorsese wins his long overdue Academy Award for best director?
  
Will Jamie Foxx find Oscar’s favour or is there an upset in the making?
  
Will Hilary Swank become the youngest actress to win two Academy Awards for best actress?

   Will Sideways be snubbed?
  
There are indeed some surprises in the making at this years Academy Awards, and come Oscar night, I suspect predicting the outcome will be enormously difficult. While initially one would The Aviator is the frontrunner because it earned the most nominations with 11, one cannot forget that The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (2001) topped the nomination heat and yet lost to A Beautiful Mind (2001). I suspect there will be more than a few upsets at this years awards, though I think a few of the awards can be called givens. With less than one month to go, here are my predictions for who will take home the most coveted little golden man in movies.
 
BEST PICTURE
    
While The Aviator is indeed the frontrunner, there has been a groundswell of support for Million Dollar Baby over the last month that could topple Scorsese’s film from the podium. That said, The Aviator has everything Oscar likes, and it is a biography about early Hollywood, well presented, and accurate to boot, directed by the man said to be the greatest living director. When the dust settles and that final envelope is opened I believe it will indeed be The Aviator that emerges the winner, but that said I would be one bit surprised if Million Dollar Baby or even Sideways pulled off a surprise.
 
PREDICTION : THE AVIATOR
 
BEST DIRECTOR
    
Martin Scorsese should have taken home Academy Awards for best director for Taxi Driver (1976), Raging Bull (1980), Goodfellas (1990) and Gangs of New York (2002), yet still remains the greatest director not to have won an Oscar. That will change this year. I know, I know that Clint Eastwood won the Directors Guild Award and the Golden Globe for best director for Million Dollar Baby, but Scorsese wants this Oscar, and the Academy wants to honour him. I suspect he will win, partly because he deserves too and partly because he should have won several times before. Eastwood, already a best director winner for Unforgiven (1992) could pull off an upset, but I think Scorsese will finally win.
 
PREDICTION: MARTIN SCORSESE FOR THE AVIATOR
 
BEST ACTOR
    
Jamie Foxx has been the frontrunner for the award since Ray premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival last September. He won several of the critics’ awards for his riveting performance and seems the easiest choice for best actor. However, something happened when the nominees were announced that I paid attention too. Clint Eastwood was nominated for best actor, and perhaps if the Academy chooses to honour Scorsese for best director, they will go with Eastwood, who does the finest work of his career, for best actor. It is an upset in the making, that will not likely happen, but if it does, you read it here.
 
PREDICTION: JAMIE FOXX IN RAY
 
BEST ACTRESS
   
  Imelda Staunton won the lion’s share of the critics’ awards for her performance as an abortionist in Vera Drake, while Annette Bening became the frontrunner in Being Julia for a wonderful performance in an ordinary film. Then December came and Hilary Swank lunged into the circle as a potential best actress winner for her brilliant performance in Million Dollar Baby. Already a best actress winner for her work in Boys Don’t Cry (1999), Swank is the likely winner and rightly so. Her performance is the years best by an actress, and I think the Academy will honour that.
 
PREDICTION: HILARY SWANK IN MILLION DOILLAR BABY
                                                   
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
 
   It is a race between two, Morgan Freeman, the beloved veteran actor in Million Dollar Baby, and Thomas Haden Church, a former sitcom star who came back from career death in Sideways to give one of the most acclaimed performances of the year. Sentiment is on the side of Freeman, who should have won a couple of time before, most notably for his work in The Shawshank Redemption (1994). Church is hysterically funny in Sideways, but the nomination might be enough to bring him back into films. Freeman gives a solid performance in a film the Academy wants to embrace in as many ways as it can.
 
PREDICTION: MORGAN FREEMAN IN MILLION DOLLAR BABY
 
BEST SUPORTING ACTRESS
    
One month ago, this race was a no-brainier with Virginia Madsen the frontrunner and likely winner. However there has been extraordinary support for Cate Blanchett’s terrific performance as Katherine Hepburn in The Aviator and equal praise for Natalie Portman in Closer. I do not believe Portman will win the Oscar, though Blanchett might. Madsen gave a luminous, wonderful performance in a superbly written film and deserves the award, but Blanchett has been here before and deserved to win. She could be the name that is read on Oscar night, however I am going with my gut on this one.
 
PREDICTION:VIRGINIA MADSEN IN SIDEWAYS
      
Look for The Aviator to grab perhaps six awards in all, though I think The Passion of the Christ will make a strong showing winning all three categories in which it is nominated, though best cinematography is the most deserving award it will take home. The Incredibles will also do very well, likely winning best animated feature, as well as the sound awards and the music award.
 









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